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Nicholas Burns: Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome. I'm Nick Burns professor here at the Kennedy School. It's great to see so many people
Nicholas Burns: online with us this afternoon. It's a real pleasure to welcome Dr. Mike Carpenter.
Nicholas Burns: Of the pen Biden center here today, I'm going to have some very nice things to say about him in a moment. But let me just give you the order of battle.
Nicholas Burns: We're going to be talking about a new transatlantic strategy on on Russia. So how does the United States, Canada, all of the European allies and NATO in the EU, how do we approach this big problem.
Nicholas Burns: Of Russia's actions in the international system that's our subject for today.
Nicholas Burns: Our guest is Dr. Mike carpenter who, as most of you know is managing director of the pen Biden center for diplomacy and global engagement that's at the University of Pennsylvania.
Nicholas Burns: And he's a non resident senior fellow at the Atlanta Council Mike has a lot of experience in government. He was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense.
Nicholas Burns: In the Obama administration for with responsibility for Russia and Ukraine Eurasia. The Balkans and conventional arms control.
Nicholas Burns: He also served in the in the White House as a foreign policy advisor to Vice President Joe Biden.
Nicholas Burns: And he served the National Security Council staff as a director for Russia. He was at the beginning of his career, a career foreign service officer.
Nicholas Burns: Which makes him in my mind, that's the right place to start. I'm sorry, we lost Mike in the foreign service, but he's gone on do pretty well in government.
Nicholas Burns: Mike is also an academic. He has a Masters and PhD from Berkeley. He has a BA in international relations from Stanford. He is widely published
Nicholas Burns: And in fact, he has just written yesterday and op ed in The Washington Post on how we should look at Putin's recent actions which we're going to get into
Nicholas Burns: In the Q AMP. A I did also want to welcome my friend, my colleague Dr Tory Taussig tory's a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School
Nicholas Burns: Tori is managing lead author lead thinker lead conceptualize or on our big project this year, which is to look
Nicholas Burns: At how we can revive a transatlantic relationship. This is going to be a report that the Harvard Kennedy School and the German Council on Foreign Relations. We're partners, we're going to release it after the US election, hopefully it's going to give the international community.
Nicholas Burns: And folks in Washington, whether it's whether it's a Biden administration or whether it's a Trump to administration as well as European governments.
Nicholas Burns: Some insights and as to how we resurrect a relationship that's clearly in trouble and has been in trouble across the Atlantic.
Nicholas Burns: For a number of years now. Tori as a PhD from this Fletcher School of Law and diplomacy Tory also spent a year in Germany.
Nicholas Burns: As a Bosch fellow, and she's someone with a real understanding of power, she focused her PhD dissertation in fact on Russia and China.
Nicholas Burns: And the exercise of power as authoritarian states addition to Tori and Mike I very much want to welcome a very close friend.
Nicholas Burns: Former president of Estonia Tomasi Levis Tomas and I go way back to the time when I held the position that Mike health
Nicholas Burns: As Director, I was director for Soviet affairs and the National Security Council staff 1990 9192 and into 93 and Tomas Ben and I were much younger than we are today.
Nicholas Burns: Thomas was the very new ambassador. The first ambassador of Estonia other revitalized Estonia to the United States. He was a great partner as we work together.
Nicholas Burns: To with our governments and with our leaders Lennart Mary and talent and Bill Clinton in the White House to read Estonia and Latvia.
Nicholas Burns: Of Soviet and Russian occupation troops. They didn't leave until August 31 1994 Tomas had a great party at his house, the ambassador's house in Washington.
Nicholas Burns: To celebrate the departure of the Russian troops who arrived in May 1940 his occupation forces and didn't leave until 94
Nicholas Burns: And I'll never forget he showed us a fail of the Red Army going into talent and into Estonia and may 1940 he played it on hyped up speed.
Nicholas Burns: In reverse and it was one of the great memorable highlights of that time Tomas went on as you all know, to become foreign minister.
Nicholas Burns: Of Estonia and he and I worked together when he was in that capacity and then he was a courageous leader I think of a NATO Alliance and the West.
Nicholas Burns: When he was president of Estonia very strong voice for human freedom. So I'm really happy easier.
Nicholas Burns: It looks like he's still in some beautiful warm place. That's just your wallpaper. I got, I THOUGHT MAYBE IT'S STILL IN PALO ALTO. Now it's
Nicholas Burns: Good to know the other person I want to recognize to other people, very quickly, I want to recognize Carl Kaiser
Nicholas Burns: Carl has been such a great member of the Harvard community for so many years and a great member of the transatlantic alliance.
Nicholas Burns: Going back to the time when he works for Chancellor Billy bront Chancellor helmet Schmidt, when he heard of the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Nicholas Burns: And welcome to Dr. And Professor Marissa Lisa Renee Johns Hopkins University, who was chronicle the end of the call or and Tomas she's now chronicling
Nicholas Burns: Whether or not the West was right to expand NATO and you and I have a very similar view on that and we want Mary, we want to influence Mary's scholarship by telling her how brilliant
Nicholas Burns: A decision that was so welcome everybody. And we're going to have a good discussion order battle is the Tory, and I are going to ask Mark
Nicholas Burns: Mike, excuse me some leading questions. Mike is such an expert on these issues. We're going to let him hold forth
Nicholas Burns: And then we'll bring all you in will call on people. You all know zoom protocol, just when you want to speak after the initial discussion among Tori Mike and I just let me know with the blue raised hand will call on people in sequence will have a great conversation. Mike, welcome.
Michael Carpenter: Thank you Nick. Great to be here.
Nicholas Burns: Great to have you with us. I know you're a busy person. Let's go to your article that you published your op ed in The Washington Post yesterday, you're
Nicholas Burns: You've been a student and observer. I know you've met him to put in for a very long time you talk in your op ed about
Nicholas Burns: The mistakes he made strategic and tactical and not working more effectively with OPEC, and the Saudis on the oil crash of the last month.
Nicholas Burns: And you also talk about the fact that the Russian government was woefully deficient in recognizing coronavirus. Let me just pump that question to you, welcome you and have you start with that. Thanks. My
Michael Carpenter: Great. Thanks. Well, the cliche about food, new, which I think is largely correct is that he is an excellent tactician and a poor strategist.
Michael Carpenter: So, for example, with his invasion of Georgia and recognition of the Georgian regions of a positive Southwest videos independent states.
Michael Carpenter: tactically he outmaneuvered the West, but strategically. Was it really such a good idea to recognize Caucasian small nation states when you are an empire that controls. Many such Republic's titular republics in the North Caucasus similarly with Ukraine.
Michael Carpenter: tactically his operation in Crimea was a success is war in the Donbass has
Michael Carpenter: Put Keef over a barrel but strategically, hasn't he lost the Ukrainian population. So what's interesting here though, in the last six weeks, maybe eight weeks is you see him making
Michael Carpenter: Some rather grave tactical errors which we don't usually see from boot. So in terms of the oil market crash.
Michael Carpenter: We see potent backing off away from Saudi and treaties to cut production. I think in the mistaken hope that he could have taken out wiped out the US shale oil industry.
Michael Carpenter: And and this is a strange mistake for Britain to be making because usually, he has very good intelligence very good information on these sorts of things.
Michael Carpenter: And he should have known that the US shale oil industry had consolidated significantly over the last four or 567 years
Michael Carpenter: And a lot of the independent producers that he would have wiped out in a single blow.
Michael Carpenter: By creating an oil glut were Act had actually been bought out by a lot of the big oil majors like Exxon and Chevron and so on and so actually, they were going to be able to turn off production pretty easily and not take an immediate term hint. So instead, he really cratered the Russian
Michael Carpenter: Economy with this ill advised moved to try to create a glut. And then let's kind of stuck because he didn't want to lose face with the Saudis who he had basically thrown under the bus.
Michael Carpenter: And it took Donald Trump essentially calling in or boot and calling Trump and they had about four or five conversations at the start of this month.
Michael Carpenter: Where Trump essentially brokered a deal between Russia and Saudi to finally cut production, but the prices, as everyone knows, have the bottom is fallen out of the market.
Michael Carpenter: And Russia is in a world of hurt. So that was Mistake number one mistake number two.
Michael Carpenter: Even worse. Mistake number two was is handling of the coven pandemic. Because look, Russia has a 2600 mile border with China. There was no way they were going to keep this virus out of their country.
Michael Carpenter: Nor, frankly, could any state in the world really keep this virus out there out of their country, but particularly Russia in terms of tracking and yet you know he did take some early actions, he closed.
Michael Carpenter: The preponderance about I think 16 out of 21 border crossings with China already in January. On January 31. But then, you know, sort of this triumphalist rhetoric.
Michael Carpenter: The propaganda machine in Russia was in full swing saying essentially we're invincible. I think a lot of people probably on this call know
Michael Carpenter: You know, Russia sent aid very vocally very visibly to the United States.
Michael Carpenter: To Italy to a number of other hard hit countries and basically started projecting this or have you know we can survive this word, the great Russian power that we are on and we're doing fine and potent was saying things like that for much of March.
Michael Carpenter: But meanwhile reports were coming that, you know, there was no testing. There was a single lab and Novosibirsk that was doing all the testing for all of Russia's 11 time zones.
Michael Carpenter: And this hubris sort of got a little out of control. You know, they haven't held a very large scale military exercise on Ukraine's borders in late March involving thousands of paratroopers
Michael Carpenter: Long after NATO had said, you know, we're pulling the plug on on various exercises in Europe.
Michael Carpenter: And so now you see the pandemic out of control. You see, you know, YouTube videos of ambulances lined up for miles and miles trying to deposit patients and overcrowded hospitals, you know, one ambulance driver quoted as saying he had to drive 140 kilometers to find an empty hospital bed.
Michael Carpenter: And that took about nine hours, by the way. And so, you know, this is now this image of you know invincible potent has been shattered and, you know, much like with Chernobyl.
Michael Carpenter: If you start out pretending you're strong and then you know reality catches up with you very quickly. In this case, um,
Michael Carpenter: Well, it's, it's, you know, it's a tactical miscalculation, it's not something that you can go back and say, you know, well, we were right, then we're wrong now.
Michael Carpenter: It kind of is you know it's egg all over his face. And so this is very uncharacteristic for Pokemon, but it is
Michael Carpenter: It's what you see in authoritarian states that have been sort of hunker down and isolated and kind of lost their touch a little bit in terms of how they manage crises. So I think this is going to have huge implications for Putin's rule and for his legitimacy going forward.
Nicholas Burns: Thanks, Mike. Before I asked my, my final question. I'm going to turn it over to Tori. I wanted to welcome.
Nicholas Burns: Because I'm not seeing people everyone who's come in. I want to welcome Professor Alan Hendrickson professor, Professor Emeritus at the Fletcher School
Nicholas Burns: Who is someone I've always respected very much and we share a hometown Wellesley, Massachusetts, as well. So Professor welcome Professor welcome to Jolyon whole worth our fellow and friend.
Nicholas Burns: At Harvard who's here a real expert on Europe, welcome to Ambassador over a renovo for an adult from
Nicholas Burns: Spain, who's now joining us from under Lucien has been with us as a fellow for this year, Mike, my, my question. Other question to you is putting it hope to use the month of April and May.
Nicholas Burns: To make as big move to become president for life and to re engineer the Russian constitution to allow that to happen. He's at least had to delay that boat.
Nicholas Burns: You know, you, you're talking to your Washington Post piece about his legitimacy and you just talked about two significant tactical mistakes. He's made
Nicholas Burns: Is there any reason to think that maybe Putin is sliding in the estimation of the oligarchs or the citizenry, or is that just wishful thinking from someone who believes that Putin is is a malignant force in global politics.
Michael Carpenter: Well, it's a great question. We in the Russia watcher community are often guilty of thinking that Putin is making mistakes and that his legitimacy is about to go down the tubes.
Michael Carpenter: When in fact, he has been the ultimate survivor. Now, two decades in power in Russia with all sorts of different episodes occurring from the best lon tragedy. The, the murder of so many innocent schoolchildren in Northwest sedia
Michael Carpenter: Such a long time ago 2004 to the sinking of the course submarine and Putin's very callous response to that, so it's it's early days, but I think this is going to be the most profound test of Putin's legitimacy. Since coming to power.
Michael Carpenter: Particularly the covert crisis and the economic repercussions of it. And I think, so far, he's shown that he's miss handling it.
Michael Carpenter: Now, there's a lot of world leaders that are miss handling the code crisis. So he's not alone.
Michael Carpenter: But the timing is particularly bad for food and because of what you just mentioned, Nick, namely that he had planned to hold a referendum on April 22 on these constitutional amendments to enable him to serve another two terms as president until 2036 when he turns 84 years old.
Michael Carpenter: Now this was already. This was a risky move to have this referendum, because he had already gotten his
Michael Carpenter: Completely pliant Parliament the Duma to rubber stamp the constitutional amendments he didn't need to put this to her friend.
Michael Carpenter: But he felt that it would make him more secure. And I think that's probably right. Had it passed but already even in March, before you know the real brunt of the coven pandemic began to bear down and
Michael Carpenter: Well, the oil market was already in crisis, but it was just beginning, you had the Levada Center. One of the more reputable Russian polling agencies.
Michael Carpenter: Poll on the question of these constitutional amendments and the supporters were at 48% the opponents were 47 so you had a razor thin margin, just that.
Michael Carpenter: And you know, it's very hard to see unless he just emerges as you know, the most competent sober leader in the months ahead how he's going to be able to keep those numbers up and not have them slide and perhaps slide rather precipitously. And so I think Putin is really postured
Michael Carpenter: To do very poorly. As a result of this crisis for a number of reasons. I'll just quickly, list them.
Michael Carpenter: I think on the just like President Trump in this country Putin has delegated the response to the regional governors.
Michael Carpenter: Now, that may be a smart strategy and countries that are used to federalism and where officials can
Michael Carpenter: Can sort of take the appropriate response to tailor it to their situation, but in Russia a centralized state as it's become under Putin. This is a recipe for disaster.
Michael Carpenter: Not having a centralized approach and leaving it to the governors who already have suppressed information on the truth.
Michael Carpenter: Within their own Republic's I can call me, for example, where the virus is raging unchecked, and where there's been a vast effort to try to suppress any real information about what's happening.
Michael Carpenter: And then on the economic front, you know, Putin has over these last two decades accumulated 430 billion dollars in hard currency reserves, which gives him a
Michael Carpenter: Sizable rainy day fund, but you know his economic response thus far has been to declare a essentially a public holiday where everyone gets paid
Michael Carpenter: But as everyone who studies Russia knows enforcement in Russia is always the key to any policy coming from the Kremlin and businesses are not
Michael Carpenter: Are not hewing to the letter of this dictate and they are finding all kinds of ways to let workers go to get them off the rolls to, in some cases, reduced wages by as much as 80 90%
Michael Carpenter: And it doesn't seem like the Kremlin is really interested in supporting small and medium sized businesses and starting to draw down on this rainy day fund.
Michael Carpenter: So if this continues, we're in for Russia rather is in for a world of hurt on the economic in terms of unemployment in terms of
Michael Carpenter: Falling wages in terms of, you know, bankruptcies potentially mass bankruptcies and, of course, is a Petro state with the price of oil. So, um, you know, their, their revenues into their budget are going to be insufficient for this year, much less for future years. So
Michael Carpenter: Putin has not, you know, this could be. It's, it's very hard to say that this is the the straw that breaks the camel's back that this is going to be it for boot and I'm not willing to go that far. But I think this is going to be the greatest test of his legitimacy that he's ever faced.
Nicholas Burns: Thank you, Mike, I was reading it remiss in not mentioning at the outset that we're on the record.
Nicholas Burns: Mike's on the record all of us are on the record if you care not to be on the record vendors, don't ask your question, but we're going to record this and put it on our website. I wanted to mention that Tori.
Torrey Taussig: Thank you Nick and I should say, Mike. It's great to see you. I wish we can have this conversation in person.
Torrey Taussig: It's also wonderful to hear that Professor Alan Hendrickson is joining this call is one of my favorite professors from this lecture school so it is great to have you on with us. Professor Hendrickson
Torrey Taussig: Mike and neck you've given a great overview of the domestic situation in Russia right now. However dire that might be and and Putin's mishandling of the crisis at home.
Torrey Taussig: Like, I want to get your sense of how you see Putin handling this crisis abroad.
Torrey Taussig: There's been a lot of talk on how China is using the coronavirus pandemic to enhance its international influence to take advantage of the crisis to make the West look
Torrey Taussig: Kind of feckless and week and we know from long term Russian influence operations that that that Putin has a very similar objective.
Torrey Taussig: Have you seen the Kremlin. Try to carry out disinformation campaigns, use the pandemic to its advantage to to gain influence in in Europe in the US or has this propaganda machine been relatively quiet compared to what we've seen from Beijing.
Michael Carpenter: So thank you, Tori. Great, great question. Two points. First, the Kremlin tried to use the fact that the
Michael Carpenter: At least the visible spread of the virus was lagging in Russia as compared to Western Europe, as I said, to sort of project this aura of invincibility
Michael Carpenter: And heavily utilized its aid as propaganda, especially the aid that came to the United States. That was accepted by President Trump that was used by putting in spades, to try to signal that look Russia strong we're doing great.
Michael Carpenter: The West is in dire straits. And look, they're having to accept paid from us. And this really resonates with Russians who are
Michael Carpenter: Many of whom the older generation certainly remember the 1990s, where they felt like they were on their knees and they had to beg the West for financial help
Michael Carpenter: And so having that those roles reversed was very powerful, but as I said at the outset that propaganda narrative is now shattering and there's no way to sustain it.
Michael Carpenter: So then there is the second piece to Putin's propaganda play or perhaps it's not a propaganda play. It's more of a diplomatic play and that is sanctions easy. So we have seen already that Putin is held a number of calls with West European leaders.
Michael Carpenter: Talking about how Russia may require aid in the future. He's had, as I mentioned, four or five calls with President Trump just in this month alone, which is most calls by far in that compressed of a time period.
Michael Carpenter: And if you look carefully at the Kremlin messaging, as I do. And you see, for example, a recent op ed written by curious Dimitri, who is the
Michael Carpenter: CEO of the Russian direct investment fund in on cnbc.com so targeted American audience where he talks about this is the time to open up cooperation between
Michael Carpenter: Russia and the United States on coven on the global recession that's coming on things like counterterrorism and Non Proliferation and climate change.
Michael Carpenter: This shows me that the Dimitri of is likely echoing
Michael Carpenter: The same talking points that Putin is deploying with Trump and their private conversation. So we don't know about because the White House is not reading them out.
Michael Carpenter: But we can infer that those are the sorts of messages that are being passed. Now is the time for cooperation and this is a predicate to say, look, we're being really hard hit by this pandemic. Now is the time to ease sanctions.
Michael Carpenter: And we haven't seen that messaging really come to full force yet, but I think the, as I said, the predicate is being laid for that argument to be made in the coming weeks.
Torrey Taussig: And second question on Russia's international role coming out of this pandemic and I realized this question is going to ask you to do some predicting over
Torrey Taussig: Fact, this analysis, but how do you see rushes intervention in Ukraine being affected perhaps rushes intervention and support of the Assad regime in Syria.
Torrey Taussig: These are two international powerplays the student has tried to use to his domestic advantage at home, particularly at times when his own legitimacy has been challenged kind of stoking the Russian nationalist
Torrey Taussig: fervor do we see or do you see the the pandemic affecting Russia's roles in either of these crises changing
Michael Carpenter: I don't. I don't. And you know, I think this goes to Putin's leadership style. He sees backing away from a particular policy course that he's on as a sign of weakness.
Michael Carpenter: And although you know diminishing rushes aggression and Ukraine might actually be popular with the Russian people who, many of whom see the conflict in Ukraine is unnecessary.
Michael Carpenter: And they see Ukrainians as their Slavic brothers and sort of scratch their heads at why this has gone on so long.
Michael Carpenter: But it would show weakness with the siloviki with a power players in the Kremlin inner circle.
Michael Carpenter: And furthermore, I don't think the potent feels that the time has come for him to back away. I think he feels like he can sustain both interventions in Ukraine and Syria have relatively low cost.
Michael Carpenter: And he does have this rainy day fund that he's that he's still presides over that he has not used to bail out his own economy so far.
Michael Carpenter: Maybe he'll change course on that aspect, but in Ukraine, the indicators are that he will continue, as I mentioned, there were the large scale paratrooper exercises in late
Michael Carpenter: March to intimidate the Ukrainians, there are now brand new co sack regiments being deployed on the Russian, Ukrainian border.
Michael Carpenter: Which has not happened since 2014 just as the war was beginning. And in fact, they were a leading indicator of the fighting in the boss was having those co Sonics massing along
Michael Carpenter: Along the Russian, Ukrainian border and then we see that there's some interesting data from Crimea showing 100 year drought drought that we haven't seen for a century.
Michael Carpenter: taking shape in Crimea. And in fact, in all of eastern Ukraine and Crimea is very vulnerable to lack of water for its agriculture.
Michael Carpenter: And already that the tourist season, there has been killed as a result the pandemic and the ongoing war.
Michael Carpenter: And so, you know, to my mind, it's quite possible that puts in could use this coming few months to potentially sees one of those canals that feeds water from Ukraine proper into the Crimean Peninsula.
Michael Carpenter: But I'm not predicting that's going to happen. I'm just saying that I don't see him on diminishing his military footprint in either Ukraine or Syria.
Michael Carpenter: In Syria, clearly he feels he succeeded. Perhaps he can draw down some of his resources but but i think the game plan of supporting Assad through until he has complete control over central and western Syria will continue.
Torrey Taussig: Great. Thank you, Mike to shift the conversation away from the coronavirus pandemic Russia's domestic situation and international situation.
Torrey Taussig: And I know Nick has a few questions on this as well. I'd like to talk a little bit about the future.
Torrey Taussig: And your ideas on what a new transatlantic strategy toward Russia should look like. It's an important year to be having these conversations to be thinking about new policies.
Torrey Taussig: toward Russia and a significant aspect of a new strategy will be looking at how to deter
Torrey Taussig: Russia's aggressive actions abroad, you've already talked about Ukraine and Syria. Another component of Russian aggression can be seen through
Torrey Taussig: Its financial networks. It's kleptocratic it's corrupt networks, how should the US and Europe work together to clamp down on Russia's corrupt and maligned financial influence in the West.
Michael Carpenter: Well, that is a great question because Russia's
Michael Carpenter: Financial and corrupt influences, perhaps the greatest weapon that Russia deploys against Western democracies to try to subvert and weaken them.
Michael Carpenter: And this is a vulnerability that we have as Western societies that we have really failed to address over the course of, well at least since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and we see this malign influence everywhere.
Michael Carpenter: There was just a groundbreaking investigative report in the Netherlands, a week ago about how this small Dutch NGO called form for democracy that popped up sort of overnight in
Michael Carpenter: And had as its sole goal, the undermining of a referendum on Ukraine's association agreement with the EU.
Michael Carpenter: And where it successfully campaign against that association agreement and, consequently, the Dutch
Michael Carpenter: Essentially were in a position to veto the government then had to backtrack. Well, that little NGO ended up becoming a far right political parties. Now the second largest party in the Netherlands.
Michael Carpenter: And we and this investigative report has discovered that it was receiving financing all along from the group.
Michael Carpenter: And so we, you know, I could go on and on about the examples of this covert financing, but it's an area that we have neglected and it's a key piece in our what I call
Michael Carpenter: A hybrid deterrence strategy, we need to have deterrence, but not just have a conventional military nature.
Michael Carpenter: Which is its own thing, but we need to have deterrence against some of these active measures or malign influence
Michael Carpenter: Operations that the Kremlin is able to undertake in our Western democracies and certainly the financial corruption piece is crucial.
Michael Carpenter: It involves creating more transparency involves things like empowering and EU wide anti money laundering regulator. It means supporting the brand new be you office of an EU prosecutor, the European Prosecutor General
Michael Carpenter: There's a lot of things we can do domestically here in the United States like strengthening the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, so that it's not just bribe takers. But bribe givers.
Michael Carpenter: Who are who are whose activities criminalized. There's a lot of things to be doing in this space. And as we look to the next administration. Again, whether it's a binary Trump Administration, this should be a central pillar.
Michael Carpenter: I'm I'm biased, I think it won't be a pillar for FOR TRUMP ADMINISTRATION because it hasn't been for the last three years. But I think for
Michael Carpenter: A potential bite administration. This has to be front and center is getting our European partners on board with
Michael Carpenter: Some of this can be done in NATO, but most of it's going to be done outside of NATO, frankly, getting them on board, getting ourselves on board with a very robust comprehensive anti corruption strategy.
Michael Carpenter: Because, you know, we've looked at our comp campaign finance system we've got these massive conduit through which foreign dark money can flow and unless we work together. We'll never clean this up.
Torrey Taussig: Thanks, final question for me and then I will turn it back over to Nick.
Torrey Taussig: It seems that another issue that should be front and center in a transatlantic strategy toward Russia is on arms control and strategic stability.
Torrey Taussig: Particularly given that we have the new star treaty firing in early 2021 other arms control treaties are falling into disarray or the US has already withdrawn from them.
Torrey Taussig: And I Ballistic Missile Treaty INF treaty open skies and this is an area where it seems that the West, the US and Russia need to cooperate for
Torrey Taussig: The sake of international security and regional stability, how does that, how do the US and Europe work together with Russia to to strengthen arms control treaties that have really fallen into disarray over the last few years.
Michael Carpenter: Yeah, this is a crucial area where we've seen a lot of deterioration over the last few years.
Michael Carpenter: The open skies treaty, the US is looking at withdrawing, of course, we've withdrawn from the IMF Treaty, but because of Russia's cheating, of course, but
Michael Carpenter: That treaty no longer exists. A BM, so on and so forth. Vienna document which was always a voluntary confidence building measure
Michael Carpenter: To provide military transparency is is being violated by the Russians left and right. So, it no longer provides that degree of confidence that we are able to look into see what they're doing.
Michael Carpenter: And now, new start the sort of the central element of our arms control framework and the, the one thing that prevents us from entering into a costly.
Michael Carpenter: And potentially very dangerous nuclear arms race is expiring in February of 2021 just three weeks after the inauguration. And so
Michael Carpenter: We're in a very dangerous spot right now and I our European partners certainly do not appreciate the erosion of this arms control regime that we had built up over decades.
Michael Carpenter: Some of it bilaterally with the Russians, but in other cases involving them.
Michael Carpenter: For example, open skies. It's a treaty that you know as a pentagon official I was quite critical. The treaty, because I don't think it really provides the US with all that much.
Michael Carpenter: That we can achieve through our national technical means, but for our European allies. It is very important because they don't have those national technical means and having access to this imagery and this data.
Michael Carpenter: On on Russian and other countries build ups is very important. So what should we be doing. Well, first thing
Michael Carpenter: To state the obvious, is we have to take the Russians up on their offer to extend a new start this one does not require senate approval.
Michael Carpenter: We can simply get this done in a matter of probably of months. It's not a very complicated negotiation to extend
Michael Carpenter: And the provision in the existing Treaty is for a five year extension. So that's number one thing I would do is
Michael Carpenter: Immediately extend new star which is working and which, you know, we have very intrusive verification measures in place to be able to monitor what
Michael Carpenter: The Russian compliance with a treat. So that is very important. But then on the other aspects of security. We have so many domains which are completely unregulated where military conflict is increasingly likely I'm talking about domains like cyber space undersea
Michael Carpenter: And we have not really had any meaningful discussions with the Russians or with anyone else on how to
Michael Carpenter: Either provide arms control or some rules of the road governing of military comm competition in these in these domains.
Michael Carpenter: And you know, you look at various. This is a very complex field you have missile defense. You have non strategic nuclear weapons.
Michael Carpenter: A range of other things that need to all be discussed together because they all impact one another. And so this calls for a set of very serious strategic stability talks.
Michael Carpenter: I personally believe the next administration should do this at a very high level, you know, potentially having the Secretaries of State and defense meeting with a Russian counterparts to discuss have an agenda.
Michael Carpenter: Of strategic stability involving, of course, military experts at the table and really getting into this and figuring out what can we do to reduce the risk of miscalculation because neither side really wants an expensive arms race.
Michael Carpenter: The Russians don't want it and we should want it because it's really not in our interest in the long term.
Torrey Taussig: Thanks, Mike. Nick, over to you.
Nicholas Burns: Thank you so much, Mike. Thank you, Charlie. Thank you. I think we should go to questions from our participants.
Nicholas Burns: In looking through the roster participants. I also wanted to welcome Ambassador bill Courtney my longtime friend colleague in the American foreign service. He's a true Russia expert and Paul Colby
Nicholas Burns: Colleague now at the Harvard Kennedy Center. Paul directs our intelligence project at the bell for Center for Science and International Affairs, I wanted to go
Nicholas Burns: It Tomas if you're still with us to President Elvis first and ask President Elvis if he wants to ask a question of Mike or want to offer a comment on his long experience dealing with his Russian neighbor.
Nicholas Burns: From us
Um,
Toomas Ilves: I only have things on the edges, though, I would say that the the despite all the problems coming out of, I mean within Russia on the question of this information there. They have been extremely active in your. I don't know how much in
Toomas Ilves: The United States because I guess the in the US where I am right now people are not following that so much. But in certainly first the attempt in Italy to gain plus points, but then afterwards, a lot of the disinformation being spread about
Toomas Ilves: About covidien in Europe, both the anti NATO as well as just within
Toomas Ilves: In European countries, as we're sort of surprised me because I think it backfires and when it gets uncovered, it doesn't. It's another own goal. There was a piece. Two days ago, I think a good piece of disinformation efforts in Italy, for example, where on the one hand you have
Toomas Ilves: You have this positive approach, but then you go and
Toomas Ilves: Get really nasty with people within Italy and this is this is surprising. The other thing I also wanted to raise is the collapse of the
Toomas Ilves: The orgy plan for May 9 and the attempt to build up for bed as the as a way to mute the last year, it's
Toomas Ilves: Fairly sort of failed attempt on an excuse excusing them all term Ribbentrop pack that I think their big plan was to make a beta big
Toomas Ilves: A big event which now it is not. And I think that big minus four Putin's attempt to build up his own prestige when his numbers have been declining. But other than that, I don't really have anything intelligent to say
Nicholas Burns: Well, you have a lot of intelligent to say
Nicholas Burns: To offer I'm in, and I reserve the right to come back to you during the session.
Nicholas Burns: President in the office.
Michael Carpenter: I just say one thing on that night. So I think God
Nicholas Burns: Yeah.
Michael Carpenter: I think President illnesses spot on there. And for those of you not following the Russian disinformation Italy, let me just expand a little bit on that.
Michael Carpenter: So what Tomas is referring to is the provision of the aid which was sent to Italy was accompanied by a number of military officers who were bacteria logical experts that's in quotes.
Michael Carpenter: Who were sent to assist with decontamination and one of the leading Italian investigative newspapers will stomp discovered that a lot of those experts.
Michael Carpenter: In quotes were in fact likely GRU officers who are conducting intelligence, even as they were helping out with pandemic response and in response to that the Russian government threaten the newspaper editor.
Michael Carpenter: And came across as really quite thuggish. And so, you know, they have miscalculated even on the propaganda front overseas, not just domestically but overseas and have sort of put their foot in their mouth on a number of occasions now.
Nicholas Burns: MIKE I REMEMBER at a very different time.
Nicholas Burns: Being with President Clinton in May 1995 at the 50th anniversary of the end of the war that was quite appropriate for him to be there at that time. And we were
Nicholas Burns: Really almost partners with the Russian Federation, how would you have would you have recommended to President Trump had he asked you.
Nicholas Burns: And given your background, he probably wouldn't have asked you, because you've been working so closely Vice President Biden. But what if he had asked two months ago. Should I go to this victory celebration on May 9, what would you suggest it
Michael Carpenter: Absolutely not. You know, I think, you know, we recently had a joint statement from the White House and from the Kremlin.
Michael Carpenter: Celebrating the spirit of the album when American and Russian troops met in Germany, towards the end of World War Two. And it was this sort of celebration of camaraderie between the two nations in defeating
Michael Carpenter: Nazi Germany and, you know, I, I'm just very skeptical about these sorts of celebrations, I fully recognize the enormous sacrifices that so many just ordinary Russian says Soviet citizens of Ukraine in the Baltic States elsewhere, you know,
Michael Carpenter: we're faced with during World War Two, but to celebrate and alliance with Stalin's Soviet Union. I mean, it's a, it's a, it's a clear ploy by the Kremlin to try to guest to
Michael Carpenter: partake in these sorts of events. And I think it's so long as Russia has troops in eastern Ukraine that are you know every day firing on Ukrainian civilians and soldiers. I don't think we should be celebrating anything that involves either Putin or the Russian military
Michael Carpenter: And so no, I, I certainly would not, you know, if he listened to my bias, which I'm sure he would not, I would certainly not be advising any US president to go to this celebration. I think it falls right into the Gremlins propaganda agenda.
Nicholas Burns: Thank you. I'm with you. I agree with you, especially in light of what Tomas mentioned this deplorable Russian attempt to rewrite the history of August 23rd 1939
Nicholas Burns: What really happened between the Soviets and the Nazis and what they did to colonize these to divide and plunder and occupy Eastern Europe, including the Baltic States afterwards.
Nicholas Burns: If you would like to speak. You just go into participants and you can press the blue hand button. I have Professor Marius rotate and then our very own my teaching assistant not kidding. Mary Elise
Nicholas Burns: Great to see you on
Nicholas Burns: The background of widen your library. I believe that's what are that wallpaper is terrific.
Mary Sarotte: Thank you.
Mary Sarotte: Harvey. Thank you. Yes, I'm enjoying creative background. So here I am at Harvard.
Mary Sarotte: So thank you for this really interesting remarks, they actually dovetail really well with a call yesterday with the Council on Foreign Relations about transatlantic relations in Russia.
Mary Sarotte: Perhaps some of the other participants were on that call as well. And so I'd like to ask you a question that came up with the Council call
Mary Sarotte: It's basically about the difficult context of the set. The may, that may celebration of the end of World War Two.
Mary Sarotte: So Nick, you mentioned April 19 you mentioned may 1995, of course, when Clinton went to see yeltsin
Mary Sarotte: And I agree that it was appropriate for Clinton to be there, but there were there were problems with his going, most notably Chechnya.
Mary Sarotte: In particular, in April 1995 Russian troops had massacred scores of Chechen civilians and burned the village of some ASCII
Mary Sarotte: In what was really basically a war crime and it happened just before Clinton went to Moscow and so there was internal discussion.
Mary Sarotte: Should Clinton still go, given what was happening in Chechnya and now of course this year we're supposed to be the big 75th anniversary of the end of World War Two.
Mary Sarotte: And now of course we've got coven and we've got all of the bad blood between the US and the
Mary Sarotte: Poor that's cast DePaul obviously over this pregnant and not going to happen because of coven
Mary Sarotte: And so the question that came out with the Council on Foreign Relations event yesterday is what I'd like to put to Michael
Mary Sarotte: And the question was, this seems to really be weakening Putin his inept response to the covert crisis. It's weakening his launch of these constitutional reforms that are meant to keep him in power for, you know, decades.
Mary Sarotte: One of the speakers on the Council call said Putin may need to give up some power in order to keep any of it. He may need to back down from his requirements traditional reforms as a result of all these fiascos and negative developments and I'm wondering what you think of that.
Michael Carpenter: Well, it's an interesting question. Let me, let me come at it from this vantage, I think the constitutional reforms that Putin propose, we're not his plan A.
Michael Carpenter: Is Plan A was likely the creation of the Union state between Russia and Belarus and he had been pressing
Michael Carpenter: Bella Russian President Luca shank of very hard over the last six months to try to agree to either a revived union state framework.
Michael Carpenter: Or a softer economic integration that would nevertheless allow them to take helm of some sort of economic entity between the two states and Lucas Shanker just never signed off on that concept. He clearly knew that this was going to
Michael Carpenter: Cut him out from the power structure. It was going to reduce Belarus's sovereignty beyond what has already been reduced as a result of Russian military influence and economic influence
Michael Carpenter: And so putting was left sort of holding the bag after a number of very high profile discussions in Sochi that were heavily publicized where the leaders essentially walked away with nothing.
Michael Carpenter: And, you know, there were a number of other things that were floating around as as possibilities for Putin to try to finesse this I think his appointment have misused in his prime minister and abrupt a termination of Dmitry Medvedev was in part a.
Michael Carpenter: planned in order to allow from Austin to potentially take over the presidency as someone who has no independent power base, who is
Michael Carpenter: completely dependent on Putin for his authority and to allow for Putin to serve as the head of, well, it's been around for a long time of this sort of revamped State Council.
Michael Carpenter: That was, that was Plan B. So Plan A was the Union State Plan B was pooping in charge of a State Council somewhat like President Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan and then transferring formal
Michael Carpenter: Who is a technocrat with no independent power base and ruling in that way and then really Plan C.
Michael Carpenter: Came into focus in late, late
Michael Carpenter: As this sort of
Michael Carpenter: constitutional referendum, where he said, look, I'm just going to go for this.
Michael Carpenter: And and was taking a very big chance because remember in the in the winter of 2011 2012
Michael Carpenter: That switch of jobs with MMA event. It was extremely unpopular with the Russian people and drove hundreds of thousands of people in the streets of the big cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Michael Carpenter: But put knew that that was a risk with this, with this constitutional change but decided to roll the dice anyway. And now, of course, with his mishandling of the
Michael Carpenter: coven pandemic. He can't follow through. There's no way you can follow through with the referendum and so what he decides to do. I don't know whether removing himself from power.
Michael Carpenter: To the city, you know, along the State Council model and allowing someone else to sort of digital re
Michael Carpenter: Be in power while he rules de facto that I think is certainly still on the table. I think the Union state is still on the table.
Michael Carpenter: And you know, we need to watch what happens in barrel Belarus very closely for the next 12 months but but i think the constitutional amendments simply won't fly. I think that is that is done.
Nicholas Burns: And Mary I just say before we go to the next question very brief response to your very good question about whether President Clinton was right to go
Nicholas Burns: In May 1995 I mean I had just as you remember had been President Clinton special assistant for Russia, Ukraine in Eurasia.
Nicholas Burns: I just gone to be State Department spokesperson, so I was, I was in the cusp of those two jobs, but I remember that what happened we transform the entire landscape.
Nicholas Burns: Of the relationship between Russia and the West, there was real peace and there was a large measure of trust between yeltsin in the European leadership and yeltsin particularly with Bill Clinton.
Nicholas Burns: They had just left Estonia and Latvia, the Russian troops, the August prior to the main 95 celebrations Russia was was being proposed by the United States to be the eighth member of
Nicholas Burns: And Russia and the US, we're working together in the United Nations in a way that we never had been since the creation of the one in 1945. This is not to minimize the seriousness of what happened in Chechnya.
Nicholas Burns: And I think for a lot of people in the White House and State Department, the time and Defense Department Chechnya came into fuller view, we have a greater understanding of it, probably in subsequent years than we did in the first month at 95 so there's no question in my mind.
Nicholas Burns: That President Clinton made the right decision to go to that particular celebration.
Nicholas Burns: So two students Matt Keating first and Nick handsome man.
Matthew Keating: Sure. Thank you so much, Dr. Carpenter for coming here today. I had a question on Arctic policy specifically
Matthew Keating: What you see as Russia's interests in its new 2035
Matthew Keating: basic guidelines for Arctic policy and how you would assess the Trump administration's recent actions in regards to ensuring the Arctic as a peaceful region. I read that the Coast Guard was recently approved for about $650 million of polar cutter boats to patrol the Northwest Passage.
Matthew Keating: And so I was wondering what you see as America's key national interest in the regions and for a future administration.
Matthew Keating: What the transatlantic relationship what NATO, what role those organs. The Arctic Council can play and ensuring that as Secretary Pompei was says the Arctic region doesn't become the next South China Sea.
Michael Carpenter: Well, that is a great question and I think we could spend an hour or more, just on that. And certainly, I want to give some time for Tory to weigh on this.
Michael Carpenter: Topic as well. But let me just say this. The, the Russian state has been militarizing the Arctic for over a decade now, if not slightly longer
Michael Carpenter: And Russia, of course, sees the Arctic as a potential source of enormous mineral wealth but also as a key transportation quarter.
Michael Carpenter: As the ice recedes. And so, Russia is pleasing itself through its military investments to be able to control transit through the various waterways.
Michael Carpenter: In the Arctic that are adjacent to its territory. Now this is a very tricky policy conundrum for the United States. We are one, we are also an Arctic power. We also have an interest in freedom of navigation. We want to be able to ensure that our allies.
Michael Carpenter: Are not interfered with in the Arctic, but we don't want to rush to precipitously towards responding to Russian militarization with our own militarization, so we have to
Michael Carpenter: This is a delicate bounds that we have to play and we have to play it together with our NATO allies and our Arctic allies like
Michael Carpenter: Sweden and Finland, who are not members of NATO and so there is an Arctic Council, where we sit where the Russians sit where Norwegians sweets Danes fins.
Michael Carpenter: Set as well. The Canadians and it, you know. It just requires a lot of investment in diplomacy.
Michael Carpenter: And so right now. For example, the United States is providing Greenland with $12 million in support.
Michael Carpenter: To try to make an end run around Chinese investments. The Chinese are very interested in the Arctic as well so that that's the other element to this story. It's not just Russian power, but it's potentially Chinese power in the Arctic as well.
Michael Carpenter: And and so we've provided this $12 million to Greenland. But we, but the Trump administration did it bypassing
Michael Carpenter: The government in Copenhagen and as you know agreement is semi autonomous but it's but it's controlled by Denmark.
Michael Carpenter: And, you know, following the this crazy stunt PR stunt of proposing that the US, you know, by Greenland from Denmark to go around the government and not fully consult with them in providing this support to Greenland. And by the way, we're also standing up console it in nuke
Michael Carpenter: sometime this summer, is my understanding.
Michael Carpenter: So presumably that's been coordinated but but not being my point is not being fully on board with our allies is really hurting our ability
Michael Carpenter: To work, you know, carefully and strategically in the Arctic region and do what's necessary to protect freedom of navigation to protect our facilities.
Michael Carpenter: To have the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets on the ground that are necessary, but without triggering some sort of
Michael Carpenter: Counter reaction from from the Russians and without alienating our allies. But, you know, Tori is a great expert on this, and I'd love to hear her thoughts to
Nicholas Burns: Hurry, and I just wanted to say, Tori before you speak, I wanted to give Fran Omar
Nicholas Burns: Opportunity to come in after Tory Fran, Mike, you may know
Nicholas Burns: Is the chair of the US Arctic Research commission. She's an Alaskan former Lieutenant Governor of Alaska former mayor of Juno and she knows a lot about the Arctic. So, Tori. Why don't you go first and Fran. We'd love to hear from you.
Torrey Taussig: Great. Well, I will quickly see the floor to friends, I would love to hear what she has to say on this. But Mike I completely agree with you. I think this is an area where
Torrey Taussig: Diminishing trust between the US and its allies could have strategic consequences that allow Russia and China to use the Arctic as more of a base for powerplays and competition.
Torrey Taussig: A relatively new Russia related question about the Arctic for me has been whether Russia will use it Arctic Sea basis as a launching point to monitor and potentially threaten
Torrey Taussig: undersea communications and internet cables and I think this is early on illustration of how we could see Russia, use the Arctic for more maligned purposes, but with that friend if you're if you're on and would like to comment. It would be great to hear from you.
frances ulmer: So I will just say that I think both of you summarized quite nicely. What can be said in a short period of time.
frances ulmer: Except to say that I think there are still so many ways in which both the United States and the other members of the Arctic Council.
frances ulmer: Successfully work together through science collaboration and a whole host of other subsidiary entities.
frances ulmer: That it would be a mistake for the United States to lead with a punch and take on too many of not only our fellow countries in the Arctic, but also the observer nations.
frances ulmer: I think the desire by the media sometimes to pump up the problems in the Arctic really minimizes unfortunately the many reasons that the Arctic Council has
frances ulmer: remained strong since 1996 because there's actually more in common than there is in opposition. Now, admittedly, the build up of military assets by Russia.
frances ulmer: has precipitated an additional build up by the United States. I mean, if you look at the investment in Fairbanks in our air power. For example, you see that there is a considerable not only awareness. But now, new commitment to try to at least be prepared in
frances ulmer: The airspace. The remaining lack of capacity by the United States in terms of the coastal areas in terms of ice breakers in terms of ports still means that our presence there.
frances ulmer: Is limited and probably needs to be thought of, not just in a military or defense posture, but in a civil awareness of what the real needs are, in case of
frances ulmer: Not only an oil spill or a tourism disaster or anything else. But anyway, I could go on and on. But thank you very much, Michael for your excellent presentation today.
Nicholas Burns: And Fran. Thank you for being with us. We really appreciate it. You also appear to be in wider library at least have really good wallpaper whitener library.
Nicholas Burns: Nick Hanson And Nick is a student at Harvard Kennedy School and a real expert former US military officer real expert on East Asia, Nick.
Nicholas Hanson: Thank you professor and good afternoon ladies and gentlemen.
Nicholas Hanson: Dr. Carpenter. Thank you for your time. I was curious if you could comment on what I think is one of the been the most unique dynamics of the past 10 years is the grown relationship or
Nicholas Hanson: In a bromance between she and Vladimir Putin and if you could comment on how you think that relationship will change.
Nicholas Hanson: Over the next few years, especially as President Putin has been weakened a bit domestically.
Nicholas Hanson: And then have if there's any issues or any room that you envision for at least the Trump administration or future US Administration to kind of widen what is least perceived from the outside as have a very tight relationship from this to two leaders.
Michael Carpenter: Thanks. Well, that is a great question. And that's another one that we could spend an hour or more on. So let me give you my views, just in brief.
Michael Carpenter: There is a running commentary in the Russia and China watch a community about whether we have, we're at the floor or ceiling of Chinese, Russian cooperation and
Michael Carpenter: I look at it like this. I think that's in some ways the wrong question to ask. I think over the long term, you will certainly find that there is more and more strategic Community competition.
Michael Carpenter: between Russia and China, you just look at the demographics of the Russian Far East, as compared to
Michael Carpenter: The Chinese regions northern regions adjacent to Russia, and you see that there that there was a lot of grounds for Russian decision makers to fear growing Chinese influence and to try to mitigate that
Michael Carpenter: There is also existing fear already that the Chinese are stealing Russian military intellectual property and applying it to develop their own systems, having purchased, you know, a token number of equipment from from the Russians and so on and so on. And in terms of, you know, energy
Michael Carpenter: There's this famous East Siberian pipeline deal where essentially the Chinese
Michael Carpenter: The Russians lunch and and current, current oil prices. That's nowhere near profitable but even, you know, at $80 a barrel that was not going to break
Michael Carpenter: That project for the Russians. So as more more PR than anything else. So I think in the Kremlin. There are smart people.
Michael Carpenter: Sergei even have is no longer there. But when he was a prominent advisor to put in the Kremlin. He's still he's still an advisor, but no longer
Michael Carpenter: In an official position when Sergei even off was there. I think even have really and I say this simply because I had some dealings with him. There may be others to patrushev and
Michael Carpenter: Some other close advisors, but he really understood the long term strategic threat that China opposed to to Russia.
Michael Carpenter: But that's all in the long term and and look at potent is a guy who thinks in 234 year time increments. He doesn't really think about the long term. You know what happens after
Michael Carpenter: Well, if his constitutional amendments are passed. You know what happens after 2030 2034 2036. So my sense is that in the short term, there is a clear alignment of interests in defeating color revolutions subverting Western democracy.
Michael Carpenter: Strength strengthening authoritarian digital authoritarianism.
Michael Carpenter: In terms of surveillance technologies and so on, so forth and an expanded horizon for cooperation on these things. And so I i really don't see, you know, there can be a contingency that causes some sort of
Michael Carpenter: Incident that that sours relations between China and Russia in the next five years, but I really see their, their relationship expanding and continuing to deepen over that time frame, I think.
Michael Carpenter: Eventually, in the longer term, by which I mean 10 years or more. There will be more friction in relationship and but not anytime soon.
Nicholas Burns: Mike, thank you. I just, I certainly agree with you and your characterization of Sergei Yvonne off. He has defense minister and his chief of staff to Pooh.
Nicholas Burns: He was a mature strategic voice around Putin and and it seems to be missing. Now I've told us wants to come in and this point. Then we have Benjamin Schmidt and Carl Kaiser Tomas
Toomas Ilves: Just a quick question because looking at the title of the talk. We haven't really talked about Europe, aside from being an object of
Toomas Ilves: disinformation, but I mean there's a lot going on in your I mean McCrone came out with his, his kind of
Toomas Ilves: Thing about forget. Forget Russia, let's make up with them and deal with China. I met by complete but in insulting silence from Germany.
Toomas Ilves: Clearly, the, the absence of any kind of consultation with allies in the so called brain dead NATO of in McLaren's imagination did not really
Toomas Ilves: Includes a lot of people at the same time there's been no reaction really from the United States at all on all of this turbulence regarding NATO European relations with Russia.
Toomas Ilves: Just any thoughts, you might have mike on this would be great.
Michael Carpenter: Yeah, thanks. President Hilda some, you know, I had originally planned to to deliver a longer talk. I think we decided it was better to have a discussion.
Michael Carpenter: And have me drone on on zoom that that's not a great recipe for success and keeping people engaged, but
Michael Carpenter: What you know my starting point for my longer talk which I have given before is that, you know, the transatlantic relationship is fried and so many different areas. I mean, from climate to trade to democracy promotion to immigration to how you deal with Russia and China and Iran.
Michael Carpenter: Then you know with the next administration, unless it's a continuation of what we have now, we really have to get in the room together and talk strategically about what are our strategic goals.
Michael Carpenter: What are our medium range goals and tactically, how do we go about achieving them because there's this huge divergence. Now, and you've mentioned and within Europe it's occurring to micro and certainly wanting rapprochement with putting
Michael Carpenter: The Italians and the Spaniards also seeing
Michael Carpenter: Ground and of course Viktor Orban and hungry seeing grounds for a rapprochement and a lot of the countries that have dealt with Russian aggression and East very reluctant to move forward in that direction. So we really
Michael Carpenter: Need to get together as a transatlantic community and and sort of get on the same page and re establish a strategic vision for what we want to achieve in Europe and what we want to do with regards to Russia, China,
Michael Carpenter: And other threats and you know my my feeling is that there's sort of five core pillars that we need to talk to the Europeans about when it comes to Russia.
Michael Carpenter: And we've we've commented, a little bit about some of those. So I think we can probably rally most European countries around a common vision of how to enhance strategic stability.
Michael Carpenter: That is not going to be a sellout of US interests.
Michael Carpenter: But that will advance strategic stability in a significant and meaningful way. Second, we need to, I think, talk about this concept of hybrid deterrence, how you determine Russia, not just in conventional terms.
Michael Carpenter: With you know companies potentially being deployed to the Baltic States, what we're doing in the Black Sea region, but also in terms of some of these subversive tactics.
Michael Carpenter: Third, I think we could probably coalesce although it won't be easy, but we could probably coalesce around an agenda for
Michael Carpenter: Enhanced resilience that reduces some of the vulnerabilities.
Michael Carpenter: That we face to Russian Chinese and other outside influence and that means things like tackling money laundering and and things that we should be doing already in terms of transparency, but we're not
Michael Carpenter: And there. There is as much room for action by the United States as by our European partners. And if we're smart about this, we can sort of push the Hungary's in the turkeys to the side and say you don't want to be a part of this club.
Michael Carpenter: Fine, but we're going to create our own club where we do and I corruption in a meaningful way.
Michael Carpenter: Forth and this one is really tricky in terms of getting Europe in the US aligned. I think we
Michael Carpenter: Have to have a much smarter cost imposition or leverage strategy with Russia focus primarily on Russia's interference in democracy, both internally in West European countries and in Ukraine.
Michael Carpenter: And really focus all our leverage on that issue but sharpen that leverage, crucially, and that's where getting the Italy's in the Spain's on boards can be very on the Francis
Michael Carpenter: It's going to be very tough, but I think we need to start that conversation. And then finally, I won't go into it in detail, but
Michael Carpenter: I think there's a far better way to reach out to the next generation of Russians than what we've been doing so far. And I think we need to. And actually, your country, Estonia.
Michael Carpenter: Has been doing a lot of very innovative programming in that regard. So is Latvia and Lithuania think the bolts are in the leadership.
Michael Carpenter: In terms of how to engage with Russian civil society and next generation Russian leaders, and I think we really need to rethink that whole aspect of
Michael Carpenter: Strategic Communications. So those are my five pillars, but it's going to take a lot of just really tough diplomacy in the room with our European partners.
Michael Carpenter: To get us all on the same page and acknowledge, hey, we've screwed up a lot of things to and we're willing to turn the page now and look at how we can have a proper strategy to make Europe whole free and at peace realizable aim.
Nicholas Burns: My. Thank you very much. Before we go to Benjamin Smith Carl Kaiser and Amy JP napkin informs us on the chat.
Nicholas Burns: That the Russian Prime Minister has just been announced has tested positive for coronavirus unfortunately he's turned over his responsibilities to bellows off.
Nicholas Burns: That's just been announced in Moscow also on the chat of row Ambassador NATO our friend says that on Russian digital disruption in the EU Member States see a study
Nicholas Burns: By Dr. Javier Lusaka from Georgetown universe George Washington University, excuse me, solid methodology very concerning findings of that study. So thank you all for for that Benjamin Schmidt.
Benjamin Schmitt: Thanks, Mike. It's great to see you today. I appreciate listening, and I agree with most almost everything you've argued here today, especially with respect to, you know, increasing transatlantic cooperation on anti corruption actions to take on Russian overt and covert dark money.
Benjamin Schmitt: In because that started as a key vector of strategic corruption and elite capture over the past decade, in particular.
Benjamin Schmitt: And given that, for example, we've seen that Russia uses its energy infrastructure leverages as conduits of these trends.
Benjamin Schmitt: Including in certain areas of Western Europe, as you pointed out, as well as broader dark money and maligned influence networks.
Benjamin Schmitt: That have impacted both Washington and capitals across Europe. How do you think that we build on one of those pillars, you mentioned
Benjamin Schmitt: And untangle these networks that already exists to get the trends, you know, unified transatlantic action here.
Benjamin Schmitt: Do you think these existing networks will tie our hands on getting impactful action on anti corruption, you know, combating strategic corruption.
Benjamin Schmitt: And what sort of platform, whether it be NATO or or other diplomatic channels would be best us to address and unify us and European cooperation on this front.
Michael Carpenter: Yeah. Thanks, Ben, I know you've been doing a lot of thinking on this topic as well, especially on the energy side and you know a lot of this corruption and coercion.
Michael Carpenter: That the Russians utilize in European countries is based fundamentally on the energy sector and the connections that they've established within that sector and for the patronage networks that flow from it.
Michael Carpenter: This is a, this is a tough one. I mean, this is going to take a lot of exposure.
Michael Carpenter: But it's going to have to be delicate because a lot of these patronage networks extend to the inner circles of power in many prominent European countries.
Michael Carpenter: I mean, look at the subway need tapes that were revealed from, you know, a prominent advisor to the leg up party in Italy meeting with Russian politicians in Moscow at the Metropole hotel talking about using proceeds from energy sales to create a slush fund for the leg a party.
Michael Carpenter: You know, we just have an inkling we just seeing the little tiny tip of the iceberg on how Russia utilizes corruption to create political influence in Europe, and I mentioned the Dutch case of forum for democracy. There's so many others.
Michael Carpenter: You know, we've seen how Russia has channeled money to a right wing political party in Poland, which is a country where, you know,
Michael Carpenter: Anti Kremlin sentiment is pretty pretty widespread yet. It happens there too so exposure, however, is one of the key features of
Michael Carpenter: undoing these networks and revealing what is happening. I mean, look at what's happened in the wake of the Danske a bunk scandal in Denmark.
Michael Carpenter: Where you had a country rated by Transparency International is one of the top most transparent countries in the world.
Michael Carpenter: And yet having this very nefarious very extensive scheme, through which money was laundered from Russia through a correspondent bank in Estonia into European
Michael Carpenter: European and American financial institutions and and so I think exposure has to be the first step. And then, you know, we just have to deal this with this in concert with our
Michael Carpenter: With our partners and allies in Europe is there. There's not one single playbook can be applied. I have long argued that the US needs to have an integrated task force that is chaired by someone at the NSC. That looks at Russian malign influence
Michael Carpenter: It can be the Senior Director for Russia and Europe, for example, it can be someone else. But there has to be a sort of a whole of government approach that brings in the intelligence, as well as the law enforcement and diplomatic agencies to all speak.
Michael Carpenter: With the same voice and communicate with their European counterparts on how to unravel these networks and take them down because this is such a huge lever for Russian influence
Nicholas Burns: Thank you Mike. So we have 15 minutes left in this session, I want to ask Carl Kaiser and Amy ye to both speak. I want to give Tori a chance to come back in with her thoughts.
Nicholas Burns: Maybe to help us conclude, we also have for just a general discussion Tomas Norberg has sent a message on chat saying
Nicholas Burns: Asking, What are the prospects for commencing confidence building measures aimed at conflict resolution in Ukraine. So maybe Mike and in one of the next iterations, you might take on that question as well. But let's go to Carl Kaiser first
Karl Kaiser: Michael in a comment and a question on the Ukraine again.
Karl Kaiser: You quoted Dimitri F and his appeal to the US to lower the sanctions, apparently, put in has made the same point, talking to Angela Merkel
Karl Kaiser: And Angela Merkel in the past has been, as we all know, very crucial in holding together, the European Union and maintaining the sanctions.
Karl Kaiser: Now, the European Union at the moment has enormous internal problems. And although Angela Merkel is anything by the lame duck. These days, in fact, she's quite strong.
Karl Kaiser: I think it's going to be very difficult to maintain the unity on the sanctions, particularly given the deplorable state of relations with washing, for reasons that we know
Karl Kaiser: My question is could you come back to your point that
Karl Kaiser: Put in wanted to maintain his policy in the Ukraine.
Karl Kaiser: Isn't it also true that the cost of maintaining their presence increase constantly. It's not very popular in Russia under covert conditions, it will be increasingly difficult to maintain it. Could you expand on that because that is very crucial for the future of that whole issue.
Michael Carpenter: Yeah, thank you. That is a great question and I think that coven is going to play out in a way in Russia, especially, but also in the known boss.
Michael Carpenter: In a way that may change the dynamics slightly in terms of Russia's how it manages the conflict and whether it is willing to look for some sort of gradual diminishment of
Michael Carpenter: Conflict and attentions and the region, my, my conclusion still is, however, that that Russia will keep the conflict going I think Russia senses potentially a strategic opening with zelinski and power.
Michael Carpenter: I think they've sense that with particularly with his chief of staff Andre or Mark may have more influence
Michael Carpenter: than they've ever had in the poor shank of administration. And I think that they sense that if Ukraine is on its heels as a result of not just covert but the economic consequences of coven
Michael Carpenter: That Russia may be able to swoop in with some sort of an offer of a deal that will look much like the Kodak plan from Moldova back in 2003
Michael Carpenter: Whereby the Russian occupied parts of the don't boss or become a sort of a quasi stateless, but then Ukraine with with autonomy.
Michael Carpenter: That's what was proposed for the Transdniestria region of Moldova by Kotaku is now Putin's chief on boy on matters relating to Ukraine, so
Michael Carpenter: You know, I think the Kremlin could make a play to put a piece proposal on the table. But if it's of that nature. It will fundamentally undermine Ukraine sovereignty and I don't think it's a deal that's worth taking
Michael Carpenter: I really don't see Putin giving up on his project of keeping influence over the government in key. I think that's his chief geopolitical aim there.
Michael Carpenter: Look, Putin was able to spend $50 billion on us the vanity project of the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014 I think he's certainly going to be able to spend a lot more money on the don't boss.
Michael Carpenter: Now coven, you know, a year from now if we're still in a, you know, in a very dire coven situation.
Michael Carpenter: And there's not therapeutics and there's not a vaccine, you know, maybe this changes, maybe
Michael Carpenter: Maybe potent gets desperate and decides that he needs to make a deal, but I just don't see that happening in the near term, I see him, you know,
Michael Carpenter: biting the bullet domestically in terms of the economic impact but maintaining that
Michael Carpenter: That true presence in eastern Ukraine, by the way, we just learned from belling cat this week that one of the key commanders of the Ukrainian separatists and the guy responsible for transferring all the Russian weapons into Ukraine for the separatists to us is an FSB Colonel general
Michael Carpenter: THERE, YOU KNOW, NOT SURPRISING TO ANYONE WHO FOLLOWS Ukraine, but, but, you know, showing just at what level.
Michael Carpenter: They really control this conflict so you know unfortunately absence greater leverage from the US and Europe, which I don't see happening for all the reasons that you mentioned.
Michael Carpenter: I think the status quo is the likely scenario for the next year, whereby you have prisoner exchanges periodically, there will be Normandy format meetings that take place.
Michael Carpenter: Where you know ceasefires are discussed the ceasefires I've lost count of how many ceasefires have been declared, and then violated the same day that they're declared so that type of diplomatic activity.
Michael Carpenter: I think will continue, but I don't see any scope for a breakthrough unless pooping really feels that he's economically on the ropes.
Michael Carpenter: Absent that, you know, and I can't imagine. On the other side, the Ukraine agreeing to, you know, to this sort of Transdniestria Kozak type proposal, the that creates
Michael Carpenter: The diminishes its sovereignty to such an extent that you know it's integration into your Atlantic institutions is forever in jeopardy.
Nicholas Burns: Thank you Mike. We have a last question from Amy and then Tory, please ask you if you have any final comments and then Mike will give you the last word.
Amy Yee: Amy much for this. This is very, very interesting. My question is about cyber attacks and cyber war. And what do you think are some of the options for holding Russia accountable.
Amy Yee: For acts of cyber war. We've seen how destructive, they can be, you know, and especially now in a pandemic. The implications are.
Amy Yee: You know the risks are even higher. Let's say if you take out healthcare systems or food supply chains shipping if you cut out electricity grids in the winter, things like that.
Amy Yee: Do you see any options for curbing these kinds of taxes holding Russia accountable. And I think there have been talks about establishing
Amy Yee: Cyber norms for digital attacks.
Amy Yee: You know is that is that feasible well
Michael Carpenter: It's a great question. I'd love to get the thoughts of Tomas Silva Sue's country was attacked in the largest cyber attacks to date by Russia against another country it's come close with Ukraine in terms of targeting Ukraine's power grid.
Michael Carpenter: Is a very difficult issue in the Obama administration. We spent a lot of time discussing cyber norms, with the Russians made some progress, but ultimately never had any kind of mechanism that was verifiable that would serve as a deterrent for either side, frankly,
Michael Carpenter: And and so this is tough, you know, I think attributing as was done for example by special counsel Muller when he identified the specific G or us some units that
Michael Carpenter: Had hacked into us servers in 2016
Michael Carpenter: I think that's important and that holding those individuals to account. But, but, you know, individual accountability is not going to lead to anything there has to be much greater cost in position when there is an attributable cyber operation or attack.
Michael Carpenter: And and that's tricky. I mean this quickly can lead to an Escalade Tory spiral that nobody wants to be in where critical infrastructure is all of a sudden being held at risk and so on so forth. So
Michael Carpenter: It's an area that we need to continue discussing, but I think it's also one where we do have leverage and we need to understand that, we need to communicate to Russia and other would be offensive cyber powers that anything they do in our country will be met with a very stiff response.
Michael Carpenter: And you know, I think you've seen some of that communication coming from the NSA over the course of the last year or two.
Michael Carpenter: Where there's already been indications that some of our cyber defense is in fact offensive in some ways the line of course is very blurred between the two.
Michael Carpenter: But fundamentally, I think we just have to make it very clear that when there's an attributable cyber attack against the United States, it will be met with the firmest of result by our leadership.
Nicholas Burns: Thank you, Mike very much Tomas i don't i don't know if you want to have a last word on this subject of the 2007
Nicholas Burns: denial of service attack on Estonia.
Toomas Ilves: I can say that, basically, I mean,
Toomas Ilves: Nations are have been loath to actually use
Toomas Ilves: Same domain responses. You don't want to get into a cyber war by going it back in the same domain.
Toomas Ilves: But you have so many other options. I mean basically attribution can be fairly good, at which point you can just just
Toomas Ilves: Throw out a bunch of diplomats, you can do. I mean, if you have any anything left to sanction. You can do that. But I think that most Western countries are very wary of using cyber in response to cyber attacks that sort of in domain responses of people don't want to get into. So
Nicholas Burns: Thank you. Tomas Tomas thanks so much for being with us today. Tori. A last word or last set of observations that Mike will give you a final reflection. Sure.
Torrey Taussig: Well, first, Mike, I just want to thank you for taking the time to be with us today. I know you're incredibly busy and this has been
Torrey Taussig: A sweeping but also very in depth discussion of a range of issues at hand. And we've all benefited from your expertise and your long experience on these issues. So thank you.
Torrey Taussig: I just wanted to close by bringing up an earlier point about the Russia, China relationship but but use this to illustrate
Torrey Taussig: A broader issue in the in the transatlantic relationship and transatlantic strategy.
Torrey Taussig: You know, I agree with you, Mike, that this relationship between Russia and China is largely tactical
Torrey Taussig: I don't see a strategic partnership blooming over the years to come. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be paying attention to joint military exercises between Russia and China and
Torrey Taussig: Enhanced economic cooperation or Putin and she is political relationship. But I agree it's it's largely tactical
Torrey Taussig: And there's been a lot of talk in the US have an acting some sort of kissing Jerry and triangular diplomacy to to pull Russia away from China's orbit.
Torrey Taussig: And I think that's the wrong the wrong focus to have, I think, first and foremost, the United States when dealing with
Torrey Taussig: Big geopolitical challenges like Russia, like China should be and all of the issues you brought up today should be first and foremost on strengthening our alliance with our European partners.
Torrey Taussig: And strengthening partnerships between Western democracies and I'll just bring up one illustration from I think it was June 2018
Torrey Taussig: On the one hand, you had Putin and she meeting ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in China.
Torrey Taussig: And President she brought Putin to a cooking class. He taught him how to make Chinese dumplings. He said that he was one of his closest and most intimate friends and at the same time you had a really tense G summit meeting.
Torrey Taussig: G seven summit meeting where you had that now famous photo of Angela Merkel and Justin Trudeau and President Emmanuel macro and staring down
Torrey Taussig: On an obstinate President Trump and and these two illustrations kind of showed to me guess. You could have a closer relationship between Russia and China, and perhaps they're developing a
Torrey Taussig: More tactical relationship. But if we don't get our own house in order. If we don't get this alliance.
Torrey Taussig: Strengthened and under control. There's very little room to make progress on on the range of issues that you've discussed today so
Torrey Taussig: First, but, Mike. Thank you again. And I just think, I mean, you've, you've really illustrated why it's important that we focus first and foremost on strengthening this transatlantic relationship on anti corruption on military cooperation on trust to deal with issues like Russia and China.
Michael Carpenter: Thanks story and Thanks Nick and thanks to everyone. Also, for, for joining this talk. I'm just going to end on an optimistic note, I think.
Michael Carpenter: Maybe for lack of a better reason, the only direction for us European relations in the next few years is up because we really hit such a rock bottom.
Michael Carpenter: over these last few years. And so, you know, if you think about what we could possibly achieve in terms of even just a short term trade deal on, for example, digital trade.
Michael Carpenter: What we could do in terms of climate cooperation, not just going back to Paris, which is vital. But building on it in a meaningful way. What we could do.
Michael Carpenter: If we put our minds to it in terms of democracy promotion within Europe and more more widely. And then in terms of dealing with the great powers.
Michael Carpenter: Russia, China, Iran, there's a lot we were we were in lockstep more or less. I mean, we had disagreements on some tactical issues, but we were more or less than lockstep on Iran.
Michael Carpenter: That's come completely undone. So I think there's a lot of scope for meaningful cooperation between the US and Europe. I think there's a yearning for that type of cooperation in various European capitals that that I visited up until you know our more recent block down here.
Michael Carpenter: And I sense that there's a lot of Americans, especially in my party who, you know,
Michael Carpenter: Want to make good investment of cooperation, so I'm very bullish actually on the transatlantic relationship as pertains to Russia, but also all these other issues.
Nicholas Burns: Mike, thank you for allowing us to end this meeting on a note of hope and optimism, you have an encyclopedic knowledge of the US Russian relationship.
Nicholas Burns: Very impressive. I thought your strategic thoughts on how we need to engage protect and defend our interests if there is an opportunity to do that in the future and
Nicholas Burns: We applaud you for your public service as well and I'll try to return the favor by ending on a note of hope. I remember in February 2019
Nicholas Burns: At the Munich Security Conference when Vice President Biden spoke to the audience. He embraced America's historic relationship with the European Union.
Nicholas Burns: He embraced America's historic relationship with NATO and he said that America. He said, we'll be back.
Nicholas Burns: And there was resounding applause I just like to say you'll appreciate this. Mike, may it be so in the future. So thank you, Mike for being with us. Thanks, everybody, for being with us today. We can all unmute and thank Mike

Nicholas Burns: Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome. I'm Nick Burns professor here at the Kennedy School. It's great to see so many people

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carpenter::noun | Spocien Dictionary

carpenter

noun

/'kɑrpəntər/

a woodworker who makes or repairs wooden objects

Type	Words
Type of	woodman, woodsman, woodworker

carpenter::verb | Spocien Dictionary

carpenter

verb

/'kɑrpəntər/

work as a carpenter

Type	Words
Type of	work
Derivation	carpentry

Examples of carpenter

carpenter

Chen Guang is a 41-year-old migrant worker who works as a carpenter in Shanghai.

From the cnn.com

George Joseph Zink had for two years worked steadily on the span as a carpenter.

From the sfgate.com

Carpenter also was a director at CIT Group Inc., the bankrupt commercial lender.

From the freep.com

In the morning, so the story goes, a young man rescued a carpenter named Blewer.

From the washingtonpost.com

Marshall was born in 1918 in Burlington, Iowa, where his father was a carpenter.

From the latimes.com

Alexandria resident Adelfa Ramirez cleans homes, and her husband is a carpenter.

From the washingtonpost.com

He drives a buggy his parents bought when he turned 16 and works as a carpenter.

From the toledoblade.com

Carpenter has spent three decades in his pursuit of idealistic political change.

From the ocregister.com

Carpenter says he has honored the FBI's request to stop following the attackers.

From the time.com

More examples

Work as a carpenter
A woodworker who makes or repairs wooden objects
Long Island (also called Carpenter, Carpenter Station, and Carpenters Station) is an unincorporated community in the northeastern corner of Jackson County, Alabama, United States. The elevation of Long Island is 646 feet. Long Island appears on the Bridgeport U.S. Geological Survey Map. ...
Carpenter is a lunar impact crater in the northern part of the Moon, relatively close to the limb. At this position the crater is foreshortened and appears oval in shape. It is, however, very nearly circular in outline. ...
Carpenter (full name and dates of birth and death unknown) was an English cricketer who played for Hampshire county cricket teams organised by the Hambledon Club.
Carpenter Station is a SEPTA Regional Rail station at 201 Carpenter Lane, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The historic station building has been listed in the Philadelphia Register of Historic Places since August 6, 1981.
Carpenter is a surname. Its use as a forename or middle name is rare. Within the United States, it is ranked as the 189th-most common surname.U.S. Census Bureau; "Frequently Occurring First Names and Surnames From the 1990 Census, (Table) Name Files dist.all. ...
In theatre, a carpenter is a stagehand who builds sets and stage elements. They are hired by either the director or producer and report directly to the crew chief. They are usually paid by the hour.
The Carpenter is the first single by Finnish symphonic metal band Nightwish, the only from their debut album, Angels Fall First. It featured, apart from Tarja Turunen's voice, also Tuomas Holopainen' voice, making it the only single with his vocals.

How to pronounce carpenter in English?

carpenter::noun | Spocien Dictionary

abandonment

Related words

carpenter::verb | Spocien Dictionary

abandonment

Related words

Examples of carpenter

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