English language

How to pronounce 1958 in English?

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[Applause]
have you taken a look at the country in
the world we've got big problems things
could go very wrong in the future they
may not but they could things are so
uncertain and that's what feels
different today there were problems in
the past sure but things were more
predictable they weren't so uncertain
there's more uncertainty today than ever
and that's scary
sometimes they wish we could just go
back to the way things are right
lots of people talk like that some of
you may be among them for you I've got
good news now I'm not going to tell you
we don't have big problems we do have
big problems and I'm not going to tell
you that everything's going to be great
in the future things could go very wrong
in the future but however bad things are
however uncertain and scary they may be
in reality the fact is they're not as
uncertain and scary as they appear and I
know this because I study the psychology
of risk and in particular I'm interested
in something called the uncertainty
illusion now to explain how the
uncertainty illusion works I want you to
think of a good year in the past right
a time when and don't limit yourself to
your personal experience just think of
any year in the past when when there was
peace and prosperity when there was less
uncertainty when people were more
carefree now when I ask people to do
this a lot of folks will pick a year in
the 1990s of course right Seinfeld is
long television comms are booming the
worst presidential scandal involves up
you know what it involves others will
pick a year in the 1980s because the
1980s is the year air of soaring stock
markets and lifestyles of the rich and
famous and other folks still will pick a
year in the mid 1960s the era of the
Beach Boys
California dreamin pretty nice time but
a lot of folks inevitably even young
people will pick a year in late 1950s
because a lot of Americans think of the
late 1950s as a sort of golden era right
what images come to mind when I think of
it when you think of night the late
1950s and specifically let's try 1958
right what images come to mind
well of course right leave it to be her
you think of what else Elvis Presley
maybe saw cops drive-in theaters you
know it was a pretty sweet time and of
course there was a lot of prosperity
peace and prosperity so we know this is
the era of Leave It to Beaver but let me
ask you this we think of it as a golden
age what happens if we go back into the
archives and we ask ourselves what were
Americans in 1958 actually thinking
right this is the cover of Newsweek
magazine in November 1958 now if you
know your American history some of you
may be a little confused by the images
on this cover right there's a novel by F
scott Fitzgerald there's Charles
Lindbergh and the spirit of st. Louis
there's a some jazz musicians and right
in the middle is a flapper dancing the
Charleston these are all images from the
1920s so why are they on the cover of a
magazine in the 1950s the answer is
because Newsweek is reporting that the
big news in 1958 is that Americans are
nostalgic for the 1920s now that's a
little curious isn't it if 1958 was such
a wonderful year as we've all agreed it
is why were Americans living in 1958
nostalgic for the 1920s new this week
answers that in their story the answer
is because Americans were scared and
they were seeking shelter in the past
right
here's a line from that story in 1958
was its anxieties on
certainties the 20s have suddenly become
a golden era right anxieties and
uncertainties in the era of Leave It to
Beaver
what did Americans have to worry about
in 1958
well it turns out they had lots to worry
about including one very big thing only
a few years earlier the United States
and the Soviet Union had developed a
terrifying new weapon a weapon capable
of wiping out all cities in a flash and
now both countries were locked in a cold
war that threatened to turn hot at any
minute
of course Americans were frightened they
had plenty of good reason to be
frightened the question then is why is
it that when we think of 1958
we think of Elvis Presley and Leave It
to Beaver and we don't think of nuclear
Armageddon and the answer is of course
we know nuclear war did not break out in
1958 or the years that followed and
thanks to a mechanism which
psychologists call hindsight bias that
knowledge distorts how we see 1958
hindsight bias is a simple cognitive
mechanism basically it makes the past
appear predictable after the fact the
first psychologist to study Kahn's
hindsight bias it was in the early 1970s
and at the time Richard Nixon was
preparing to engage in a major historic
trip to China in the Soviet Union and
there was a lot of speculation about
what Nixon would do who he would meet
with and what would happen and so the
psychologist Baruch a fish off and Ruth
bathe went to people and they said to
them can you answer some simple
questions questions like how how likely
is it that Nixon will meet with Mao
personally how likely is it that the
United States will open an embassy in
Beijing they took their answers and they
filed them away in weeks later after
Nixon's trip was completed after the
answers to all the questions were clear
to everybody they went back to those
folks and they said to them okay you
remember those answers you gave us we'd
like you to recall them as accurately as
possible okay it's very simple just a
memory test but guess what they found
the psychologist found that people's
memories were systematically distorted
if an event had happened they remembered
themselves thinking that the event was
more likely to happen than they actually
had before it happened and if the event
had not happened they remembered
themselves thinking the event was less
likely to happen than they actually had
at the time
a hindsight bias has been replicated in
countless experiments and it distorts
how we perceive the past and it is the
reason why when we think of 1958 we
think of Leave It to Beaver and Elvis
and not nuclear war well we look back in
1958 we know there was no nuclear war
therefore to us it seems predictable
that there would be no nuclear war in
fact it kind of seems obvious that there
was nothing to worry about
right which makes the night 1958 look
like the sort of carefree time of Leave
It to Beaver but the people living in
1958 it was anything but obvious that
there would be no nuclear war
it was extremely uncertain and that
uncertainty was terrifying
unfortunately hindsight bias affects us
whenever we look back at the past
whether it's a past we've personally
experienced or a past we only know from
history books when we think back to the
mid-1960s sure we think of the Beach
Boys in California dreamin but we don't
think about all the fears that inspired
another 1965 pop song hit the eve of
destruction or when we think about the
1980s you think about soaring stock
markets and lifestyles of the rich and
famous but we don't think about nuclear
war out-of-control crime or a fear of
AIDS so extreme that in 1987 true story
Oprah Winfrey told her audience
that one in five Americans could be dead
of AIDS by 1990 or when we think about
the 1990s you think about Seinfeld in
the.com boom but you don't think about
the crack baby panic you don't think
about the scare about super predators
you don't think about the widespread
pessimism that made bestsellers of books
with titles like the coming in Turkey
and bankruptcy 1995 the coming collapse
of America okay hindsight bias drains
the uncertainty out of the past and that
makes the past look much less scary than
it actually was
at the time so let me put this together
let me put the pieces together and show
you how the uncertainty illusion works
Here I am standing in the present I'm
looking around and I see big problems I
start to worry so what do I do I look
forward into the future and I realize
things could go very wrong things go
things could go very wrong okay
what's next I'm scared well I'm gonna
try to compare this because I want to
understand how bad the situation is I'm
gonna try to compare the present to the
one and only thing that the present can
be compared to the past so what do I do
I turn and I look at the past and what
do I see
thanks to hindsight bias I see a past in
which there was way less uncertainty
that means the present and the
uncertainty I see in the present isn't
normal in fact there's more uncertainty
than ever and now I'm really and truly
scared that's how the uncertainty
illusion constantly makes the present
and the future
look more uncertain and scarier than
they actually are
so what can we do about this well first
thing is read some history books that's
always a good idea watch some history
documentaries also open the archives
spend a little time reading old
magazines and newspapers if you do
you will very quickly realize that there
are always big problems there is always
lots of uncertainty and people are
always worried about the future that's
valuable perspective because it protects
you from feeling nostalgia for a past
that never existed and more importantly
it can protect you from becoming so
frightened and so intimidated by the
problems that we face now that you
simply become a defeatist you give up
you say there's nothing we can do this
is too big this is too scary right
that's how we can produce a future there
truly is scary as if we give up
look the simple truth is people have
always faced big problems we're no
different okay if we think hard if we
make good decisions we can tackle those
problems
the uncertainty ahead will resolve in
our favor and we'll get along we did it
in the past many many many times we can
do it again thanks very much
[Applause]

[Applause]

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How to pronounce 1958 in English?

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